Improvised INVESTING

Investing in MasterCard and Visa: Invest in Your Credit Cards

2011-09-16T02:28:00.001-04:00

Your wallet knows what your wallet wants. Growth! If you have a long-term horizon MasterCard (ticker: MA) and Visa (ticker: V) might just belong in your portfolio, and not just in your wallet.

Global growth, increasing "cash-less-ness" worldwide, small dividends likely to increase, and lack of credit risk --- the two premiere transaction payment companies are somewhat more compelling than American Express (ticker: AXP) long-term.

Check out MasterCard and Visa -- investing in your own wallet!

Dividend Stock Investing: Best Kept Secret

2011-08-24T14:12:00.000-04:00

The Power of Dividend Stocks

Do you primarily buy stocks which regularly share their earnings with shareholders? What is your dividend stock investing strategy? Do you know the great, best-kept secret to buying blue chip dividend stocks for the long term? Think about fees, total return, and more when you choose your next stock.

Writersbloggingblock: Wealth Strategies: Diversify Your Income Streams

2011-08-14T08:19:00.000-04:00

~~Writersbloggingblock~~: Wealth Strategies: Diversify Your Income Streams

Here's a blog site with a variety of content from a number of internet writers, bloggers, authors, and publishers who share material that they have written at a number of personal and niche-site blogs, and also at content-rich sites like InfoBarrel, HubPages, Seekyt, and elsewhere online. Check it out!

Passive Income: my DRIP plans, and recent writing for InfoBarrel!

2011-08-09T12:00:00.007-04:00

InfoBarrel

So in addition to working, and trading and investing in the market with a number of different stock and option strategies, I am also looking for passive income. Here are two main areas of focus for me:

PASSIVE INCOME PLAN Number #1:
Part of that passive income plan is to buy dividend-paying stocks monthly over a number of years, through DRIP plans. For many years I will simply reinvest the dividends and then when I decide I need income, I will stop the monthly investments and turn off the quarterly dividend payments. Instead each transfer agent can direct-deposit these funds directly into your bank. At the present, I maintain DRIP accounts in Kellogg (K), Kraft Foods (KFT), Wells Fargo (WFC), Supervalu (SVU), General Electric (GE) and Banco Santander (STD). Each of these gets a monthly purchase direct from my checking account (started at $50/month, now up to $75/month each), and each pays a dividend.

I also recently took notice that the dividend payments are staggered throughout the calendar year. This will be useful when I start to take income:

Jan: KFT,GE
Feb: STD
Mar: WFC, K, SVU
Apr: KFT, GE
May: STD
Jun: WFC, K, SVU
Jul: KFT, GE
Aug: STD
Sep: WFC, K, SVU
Oct: KFT, GE
Nov: STD
Dec: WFC, K, SVU

For example: So if we decide to add another DRIP, I will pay careful attention to the dividend payment cycle. Two stocks that we could consider adding Caterpillar (CAT) and Procter & Gamble (PG) both pay on the Feb/May/Aug/Nov cycle where we could use another dividend. The argument against getting another DRIP plan is the extra paperwork, less trading capital for direct accounts, and less accumulation in the plans we already have. As I can increase the monthly purchase amounts here I should do that rather than just adding more.

InfoBarrel features revenue-sharing with its writers...

PASSIVE INCOME PLAN Number #2:

I've been blogging for years, but I realized that my traffic is inconsistent, and therefore so are my related online revenues. After a lot of searching for other ways to make money online, I found InfoBarrel, an online revenue-sharing site where writers join free, write content (over 325 words+), and split the Google Adsense revenue (75% you / 25% InfoBarrel), as well as $$ from Chitika, and the Amazon affiliate program. The articles stay there and continue to generate traffic and impressions as your material moves up in search engines. I've already written my first sixteen articles and am starting to see a trickle of adsense pennies! Join InfoBarrel here and join me and 63000+ other writers creating a site that has momentum (meaning more traffic for your articles!!) This is my referral link, which comes out of IB's share and not yours! I also started writing at HubPages as well!

Investing in Water Companies, Water Stocks, and ETFs

2011-08-02T08:24:00.001-04:00

There has been more discussion lately about the viability of selecting water companies, water stocks, and ETFs as long-term investments. The question is whether the commodity of water will gain in value, outpacing the indexes, due to issues of scarcity, access, and potability. One choice is likely is the basket of stocks available through ETFs, although the investment fees may be too high to receive a competitive return. The other consideration is that the diversification dilutes the possible real gains available in this investment thesis. I'm starting to believe that the best choice might be to select a relatively undervalued stock that has significant exposure to water related issues and technologies. A conglomerate company like General Electric (GE) seems like a solid choice, with a diversified industrial base, and features a decent dividend payout while you wait. (Please do your own research before you buy any investment!)

Long Term Investing ideas

2011-07-27T08:22:00.000-04:00

Here's a link to some long term investing ideas.... based on a series of global trends.

Options Trading

2011-07-26T14:36:00.000-04:00

Consider the income possibilities of options trading alone: 1) covered calls on long term holdings 2) cash-secured puts on stocks you want to own 3) deep in the money LEAP calls and 4) spreads (for me, preferably bull put spreads..) [monthly or weekly] (I recommend Lee Lowell's book "Get Rich with Options" here!!

Where my heads at....

2010-02-18T20:51:00.000-05:00

Fast month... $NVAX

2009-08-25T16:08:00.005-04:00

So I've still been trading $AAPL, $GOOG in channels until we get our 'pullback/correction' which I've been very WRONG about for a while! Took some pain this month on ill-timed SPY puts. (yikes). 'Survival' is truly a market skill.

So I wrote this recently, elsewhere: "I have been trading for a few years (~5) with only mild success due to a few SIMPLE errors (ha!): 1. swinging for the fences; 2. taking way too much risk (more than once, even though getting my face "ripped off" the first time should have taught me something; 3. trading without much of a clue and nearly blowing up more than once.... 4. trying to "get back" what the market took from me and 5. letting my bias about market direction cloud my judgement and send me back to number (2).... 6. forgetting that it's a marathon and not a race."

For that reason, lately I'm definitely balancing my strategies between day trading stocks/options/etf versus the more conservative covered call (CC)/naked put (NP) front-month strategy. The gains are slow-n-steady, and if done right with companies that you'd be happy owning, then you can't get hurt too bad, and likely make nice gains (I'd say 1.5-4% per month on those trades.)

I've been re-inspired about CC's by a yahoo discussion group and its associated members (many who are very successful with this single strategy - the group is called "justcoveredcalls".

I currently have CC trades for September in: AHL: bought at 24.31 sold SEP-09 $25 calls @.65; HUN: bought at 7.44, sold OCT-09 $7.50 calls @.65; BCRX: bought at 11.99, sold SEP-09 12.50 calls at 1.65; the two SEP trades have 25 days to expiration as I write this. The argument against covered calls is that it caps your upside-- but I like the defined nature of these trades, premium that gives downside protection, and a short window of obligation. I want to be more often on this side of the calendar running out.....

The other trades lately have been in BAC (closed out with a profit yesterday) and NVAX which I got into at 5.16 today. I think this company could HELP a lot of people if the FLU virus becomes a problem again this fall. (BCRX is a play here as well, but having one of these two positions covered seems like a nicer risk/reward balance.) This is likely a swing trade or if it runs I could sell deep ITM calls to lock-in the gains, and if it drops have huge downside protection. Interesting company - the CEO has a Doctorate from M.I.T. and an MBA from Wharton-- smart fellow, and they helped a ferret today! (see news elsewhere); Level II shows some end-of-the day purchases by one of the big boys (4 lots of 55468 totalling $1.1M)... We'll see.

Channel trades

2009-08-07T12:14:00.004-04:00

I've been swamped for a while with my summerJOB, and my looming fall JobJOB (which is year-round technically)... so I've had time to trade and read blogs, and listen to podcasts to try to stay current but no time to log my trading... Stocktwits TV is an interesting development... always great insights from a group of "REAL" cats. These guys trade, and you know it!

So waiting for a long awaited pullback, correction... and being wrong, I've been burnt on some $SPY and $QQQQ AUG puts that I bought. I did make a bunch of $$ in $CIT getting in at an average of .60 and dumping at 1.33 (with the cost of covering and uncovering calls sold against them - sold at .30 bought to close at .55- hey, I had to have cover over the weekend...

One thing that has been working is a repeating CHANNEL trade in $AAPL and $GOOG... (some are day trades and some are overnight (or longer) swing trades... others involve selling into morning strength and buying back later...)

Here are all the recent channel trades in these two stocks:

$GOOG:
7/22: Bought at 436.13 and sold (7/23) at 437.80
7/24: bought at 446.63 and sold (7/31) at 451.76
8/3: bought at 452.63 and sold (8/4) at 453.72
8/5: bought at 450.36 and sold (8/6) at 453.63
8/6: bought at 450.63 and sold (8/7) at 456.36

$AAPL:
7/22: Bought at 157.63 and sold (7/23) at 157.99
7/24: Bought at 159.63 and sold (7/31) at 164.53
8/3: Bought at 166.13 and sold (8/5) at 167.11
8/5: Bought at 165.36 and sold (8/6) at 166.26
8/6; bought at 164.3595 and sold (8/7) at 165.36

Good trading. (p.s. this is jazz festival weekend... even if you don't go to a jazz fest, listen to some of America's great contribution to the world of music [live or on CD or mp3] !!!)

Shorting Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold

2009-07-10T11:35:00.003-04:00

Haven't posted in a minute, but here's a successful short trade from Wednesday.... Still trading in and out of $SPY front month calls/puts (mostly puts and that seems to be working as my own regular trade...) Dumped some swing trade AAPL today too... Back to trading...

Minnows and Whales?

2009-06-26T09:37:00.004-04:00

So I haven't gotten into a pattern of regularity with my postings yet. We all have so many blogs to run around and read on a regular basis, and a bunch of podcasts to listen to (now at 2x speed on the iPhone to process the info faster.) I have been trading, some SPY calls/puts and some AAPL options while also dumping some holdings that have been dead money. I'd like to get to the position of 100% cash overnight- but I still have to dump some longs.... (some with premium sold against them...)

So my random TRADING thought of the day is: "Perhaps every minnow thinks he's a whale...".

Maybe most (if not all) of my big trading mistakes [swinging for the fences; position sizing; greed/fear exits & entries; hope vs. technical analysis) have roots in this concept of trying to be MORE THAN YOU ARE.

I can swim along side big underwater creatures (if I don't get swallowed, crushed, or drowned), but I must never let a day trader ego and some gains make me feel like I'm invincible to the MARKET movers and the market makers. Plus should we really get MAD when they swim by!!! (well, sometimes I do, grasshopper... can't fix everything in one blog post!..) Good trading and don't forget to improvise... (Didn't expect yesterday's pop after those unemployment numbers...hmmmm.)

Apple Calls - JUN-09 $135 Call (Sample Data)

2009-06-18T01:19:00.002-04:00

Battle for 950 on the S&P; E*TRADE

2009-06-11T21:08:00.004-04:00

Well, I think we got a signal at the end of the day when we couldn't hold 950: we are OVERBOUGHT.

I made $$ today dumping a little LVLT (sold too soon), uncovering TZA, and an overnight scalp in $SSO (out at 28.33 - pretty close to the high for the day...yikes - that never happens!) I bought ETFC (E*Trade Financial) today on the rising interest around Kenneth Griffin joining the board, and the subtle possibility of an inflow of cash from his Citadel hedge fund. (Bought stock at 1.59; and later bought some JAN-10 $2.50 calls at .45 - the same price/strike as a big buyer (15,000 contracts). I noticed quite an interest in ETFC calls and leaps (spread all throughout the calendar...); but just big lumpy visible buyers, and not WIDESPREAD buying across all strikes and expirations. We'll see how this plays out... NOTE TO SELF: be patient....

At the end of the day, I flipped into more JUN SPY puts... (which ended up nicely at 4:15pm...) I am encouraged that the downward move is real now that the overhead RESISTANCE of 950 was retested. Check out this put volume in SPY... (I bought a lower strike, but this is encouraging...)

Whales on Apple Close....

2009-06-11T07:50:00.005-04:00

So I sold my Apple at 141.05 to lock in some gains here (yeah I should have sold at 144 last week or that crazy 148 pre-mkt spike - but I wasn't at the computer...). (Also got a BEAR PUT SPREAD on AAPL here... which I consider a near-term top for the stock.)

We're in a really tight trading range (SPY 930-950), but I was still able to sell 2/3's of my SPY puts for a profit as well. My post in late May was right-- I can trade front month SPY puts/calls as my own volatility trade. Watching CAT, TBT, BJS (Najarian pick), STD (Spanish bank), ETFC, and LVLT (Level 3 on its talks with Sprint). Jobless claims/retails sales today...

So here's a SCREEN CAPTURE snapshot of a WHALE buying some APPLE at the close on Wednesday June 10... he could have gotten a better price 45minutes earlier before the Goldman/Credit Suisse robots jammed the SHORTS!!!

p.s. This is where I was today...

2009-06-07T21:05:00.003-04:00

Never trust a restaurant that doesn't have a good quality bottle of ketchup on the table!!

Watching for LFT entry

2009-06-07T20:56:00.003-04:00

So this week I'll be watching for an entry on LFT: Longtop Financial ADR. Hoping to start building a position somewhere between 28.35 and 29.76 (or lower if we get a market pullback!). I might also look to trade some quick option plays in EWT, EWH, GMCR, AAPL, V, and/or SPY.

My long position in Apple (AAPL) might be jettisoned here (for a nice profit), so I can buy back cheaper later. I think this developers conference is likely the short-term top for the stock.

Might sell some Google (GOOG) as well, if it looks like there is some lack of followthrough on this rally.

Made $$ last week on AAPL, GOOG, and SPY puts (Wednesday...). Watch out!

Ouch! (or not sure HOW we managed an UP-DAY?)

2009-06-04T16:09:00.005-04:00

I'm still long-term bullish, but was expecting to sell-off some puts today... Didn't do anything but watch the pain grow (very cautious of my sell points)... I endured the pain to see what tomorrow brings. A glimmer from OPTIONmonster.com below... in this clip the S&P500 Index ETF (the SPY) had BIG! purchases of at-the-money puts in the last 15minutes of trading... about $1M in the last ten minutes if I did the math right. Hmmmmmmmm????!!! The fine traders at Goldman, (kicking all our butts!) perhaps....???

Good Week so far and my use of R-values.....

2009-06-04T08:20:00.004-04:00

So it's Thursday morning pre-market, and I have been doing well with my trading plan this week and my "nimble-ness". I was away most of last week but was able to complete a couple trades (in the green) from my iPhone. (so moderne...)

So although I don't want to discuss real trading $ numbers on this blog (although some trader/bloggers do), I think it's more important to track {risk vs. reward} with a variation of the R-value. (Search on google for discussions online about R-values in trading.) My spin is that rather than have R (=risk) be defined as an exact percentage of trading capital, I think it makes sense to make R equal to my daily goal (which also must become my daily LOSS LIMIT). Therefore when you have a gain you can define it (in R-value as a multiple of RISK/daily target. (for example: If you want to make $100/day and you make $600, then that is 6R; if your target is also you MAX risk level and you lose $450 then you have -4.5R, etc.)

TRADING: The reason this is still valuable to track is that if you risk 15R to make 1R, then it's probably too dangerous. If you risk 5R and manage to make 8R you can see that compared to my other example-- this is a completely different trade.

Ongoing jobless claims just came out at 621,000 which sounds pretty bad to me but we are moving up pre-market on the "LESS BAD" idea because the dipped by 4000. Retail sales numbers are still bad at a number of stores; the consumer is NOT back yet.

Late yesterday, I had to leave before the market closed (and the last 30minute run-up), so my holding overnight PUTS are positioned wrong for todays action. (have some hedging puts on AAPL, PALM, SPY, and QQQQ).... Made money this week trading SPY (puts), AAPL (long) and GOOG (long), and uncovering for gains TZA and SDS. So YES, I am watching very closely today, and will be looking to DUMP some of these puts, if we get the market to drink some HATERADE!!

6/1: 4.7R
6/2: 1.8R
6/3: 1.2R

S&P 500 front month, at the money calls/puts?

2009-05-22T13:14:00.004-04:00

maybe this should be a core strategy this summer....

Strategies of the Week May 18-22, 2009

2009-05-22T12:20:00.001-04:00

So it was an interesting week for me... I continue to refine my approach to trading (active, swing, scalp, etc) and am glad that I've developed more skills for pulling money out this kind of market.

*Made $$ this week selling covered calls on bearish ETF's ($TZA, and $SDS), and then buying them back cheaper.
*Made money trading around long positions in Apple ($AAPL) (stock), and Google ($GOOG) (scalping front month OTM calls).
*Made money selling Mechel Steel ($MTL) puts (obligating me to buy a BUNCH), and then buying them all back today (no obligation...).

So I made my week in a way that I probably wouldn't have been able to a year ago. I may have understand all these concepts last summer, but would not have been able to execute them fast enough to take advantage of changing market conditions.

Now go play some jazz. :]

p.s. (have a nice memorial day weekend- but don't forget to remember those who have gone on ahead...)

Pullback and in the SDS etf

2009-05-15T09:07:00.004-04:00

SDS

So after taking some gains in the last few days in tech (GOOG and AAPL), TZA, and FAZ... I took a position in SDS (the ultrashort S&P 500 etf). I think we have to pull back a little, and consolidate. With the TZA I'm still holding, the SDS buy is mostly a hedge to my few long swing positions (most of which have covered calls sold against them-- which I will uncover if they fall back in my favor.) I don't have a great cost basis (61.17), and I should have started my position yesterday or the day before, but as you can see from the chart it has been quite higher recently.

Google and TZA

2009-05-14T20:10:00.001-04:00

Took some profits today in Google and in TZA (small cap bear ETF).... Didn't have a lot of time, but still made it happen.... :)

Expecting a bigger pullback...

2009-05-12T22:37:00.003-04:00

I've been expecting a bigger pullback than this AND sooner, but it's not happening. Took some profits today on AAPL and FAZ. I'm surprised that the secondary offerings are not pissing everyone off-- I thought they
would really bother the market with these obvious dilutions and institutional "pump and dump".

Hard to get long here... and it's hard to find short opportunities, if the market wants to keep going higher. Trying to find some swing and day trade possibilities.

Here's my watchlist: MICC, AMX, BUCY, TKC, MTL, TNE, AGU, BAC, BAC (under $10), VNDA (Curzio), ETFC (i use power e*trade daily...), CREE, BX, GOOG, JPM, AVAV, MT.

Some trading...

2009-05-07T22:38:00.001-04:00

Made some gains on $UYG and other things--- swamped at the jobJOB....

p.s. Apple Earnings and Extended Hours Chart

2009-04-23T22:52:00.001-04:00

...

The Rally that Still Lives...

2009-04-23T22:24:00.005-04:00

So I keep thinking that we're going to sell off in a BIG way to alleviate the OVERBOUGHT conditions, but we still manage to find some KICK. I'm bullish longer term, but I think we've come too far too fast-- so I've been positioning for a pullback.

I'm still holding $TZA because I think the small-cap junk will be the first to fall- and a bought some $FAZ the other day. I'm still holding $AAPL (Apple) long and it's got some nice gains... but today I bought some AAPL puts for June and July (100 strikes). I think AAPL is a long-term winner, but I feel that it's fairly valued right now and will sell off in the short-term. It was UP today, even though I expected MORE profit taking after the quarter, but tech's still working (my GOOG was up a bit today too... although the volume seems to have dried up there.).

Check out this Daily 13-DAY chart of Apple... good volume today, but looks TOPPY to me...

Sell-Off after Options Expiration

2009-04-21T00:09:00.002-04:00

I wasn't surprised by today's sell-off-- I was watching for late-day buying on the dip. Didn't happen... So my covered calls on a few stocks came back my way. My big movers today were TZA (small cap 3x bear etf), and my financials play--puts on FAS. I held both of these overnight based on their strength going in to the close. AAPL earnings this week should be good, but probably already baked in to the move we've had-- and they might be overly cautious going forward which could signal a pullback. I'll be watching those results ... Goodtrading.

The ONE that Got AWAY....

2009-04-14T22:17:00.004-04:00

So I saw this biotech company DENDREON run big the other day PRE-MARKET... and I just watched for a while because it really seemed over-extended... too late. Thought it might be interesting on a pullback, but speculative medical companies can easily disappoint if a drug trial goes wrong-- so nope. Got busy with the jobJOB-- traded other things in the interim.. but never got any... no position.... So this morning..... up a $%^&*&^%% ton! Yikes: the one that got away... Had to take a screen capture for the blog...

Onward and upward- I'll catch the next BUS. I'm happy for those who were in it and woke up to the LOTTERY vibe!!! (BTW, I got in TZA (the Direxion Triple Bear Small Cap) and it's working! (Sold premium against it today for April expiration. We'll see.

Trading, Jobjob, and Monday 4/13/09 Watchlist

2009-04-12T19:04:00.004-04:00

So yeah, the Wells Fargo earnings helped an amazing short-week rally... (on CNBC, UBS' Art Cashin called an Easter rally weeks ago... makes me wonder if the institutional guys KNEW that Wells Fargo (WFC) was going to crush numbers. RISK: Now we could be brought down to earth if the other financials fail to knock it out of the park.

So I've been busy with the jobJOB and such, but I have been trading and making some $$$ on the float higher... my $AAPL, $GOOG, $FAS, and such have been working. Some options on $FAS stung me because it's hard to understand the relationship between the financial bull & bear leveraged ETF's. (That's being nice-- actually their pricing makes NO @#$^&%$#$%^ sense.... the relationship between the two (and inverse relationship), as well as the price drift to the underlying assets, and the adjustments to the NAV (Net Asset Value), means that sometimes they RIP YOUR FACE OFF. (even when you are right :)...

So here's an interesting watchlist of stocks that have made new 55-DAY highs on Thursday, 9 March 2009.... This is my watchlist for Monday 13 April 2009. The average gain on this list is 10.44%- we'll see how they hold up going forward. (tax week, yuck.- but I pay my fair share.) Good trading!

Upbeat for now

2009-03-25T22:21:00.003-04:00

So things look relatively upbeat for now. Pretty busy lately, but still nibbling at FAS, and FAS options as the financials go higher. (My whole week was made last Wednesday on FAS call options.)

So I bought a little BX (Blackstone Group) on the premise that they can make big $$ with this new govt bad-asset plan. I'm also watching FIG (Fortress Investment Group) for the same reason -- although maybe I was too late to this party... We'll see. I added a little more Citigroup too-- the plan for a reverse split might get more institutional $$ back in there. And I'm watching WAMUQ, the penny stock remnants ...Of Washington Mutual --victim of the "shitstorm firesale", and sketchy at that. (michael in china put me onto this a while back - but i just found them again.) Watch for developing news about them suing the FDIC...

St. Patrick's Day, Apple and Simon

2009-03-17T10:09:00.005-04:00

So I think this rally has more upside (even if it's not the real bottom yet)... I'm hedged with long FAS (triple financial bull) and Wells Fargo (WFC) puts. My Apple (AAPL) position's doing well this morning-- awaiting the iPHONE software update... not a market mover, but want to see as a user...)

Improvised Investing---->> (The din of CNBC- and/or Bloomberg soundtrack today??? NO! Stocktwits, yes.... ) Instead I'm listening to the great set of Venezuelan latin jazz pianist Ed Simon's Quartet live at the Vanguard newly available on NPR (recorded by WBGO). Check it out.

Happy St. Patrick's Day!

POP....

2009-03-13T00:14:00.003-04:00

Bought some $FAS (Financial bull) call options... (before this follow through up day started...) [ yes.]

Madoff goes to jail.... i def think we need some more perp walks to calm the markets.

and it would have been nice to have had LOTS more DNA as it confirmed $95 today... ONWARD and UPWARD.

Genentech

2009-03-06T23:41:00.002-05:00

So Genentech (DNA) popped today on the [expected] higher bid from Roche -- was $86.50, now $93. I sold my April 95 calls, up 52%, into the pop.... Wish I could have bought many more than I had. Other than that-- pretty crappy, painful week.

Negativity

2009-03-02T20:20:00.004-05:00

On days like this... you would think that EVERY COMPANY on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq is completely WORTHLESS and is going to zero! That there is NO GROWTH, NO VALUE, and we are all going to live in cardboard boxes under the freeway.... YIKES.

Breakthrough levels on the DOW and the S&P... I heard the phrase today "too LATE to go short, and too EARLY to go long..." I think its possible to make $$ here, but it's clearly getting more difficult. (CHECK out this six month, daily chart of SPY).

SSO volatility, and CECO

2009-02-25T20:54:00.003-05:00

Well guess we couldn't exactly follow-through on yesterday's enthusiasm. We've been in the land of MISTRUST: most people are conditioned to take profits after a rally...

I made $$ today trading the S&P volatility (in the SSO calls [ the ultra S&P etf ] )... and I am long some CECO (Career Education Corp...) Looking to build a position here over the coming days/weeks. The chart looks pretty bullish.

Ben Bernanke Bounce

2009-02-24T16:06:00.003-05:00

Thanks, Fed Chief... for being calm when all we do is panic. You gave our OVERSOLD market a chance to rally back.

Made some $$ late today on SSO (S&P 500 ultra ETF)... Woof. I'd like to see us follow through tomorrow with some more UPSIDE. (Even though I'm prob too busy tomorrow to stare at the market for more than a couple hours...)

Ugly, Education, and Stop-loss

2009-02-21T13:52:00.003-05:00

So ugly week, new six year lows on the dow and such, and GE, BAC, and C under $10 a share. I still am up for the week (and for the year), but my swing trades are being demolished... I was getting some traction on FOREX trading the EUR/USD trade, then I got stopped out (for a loss!!) at 2am EST in the 1.2560 range only to have it move up to over 1.28 before Friday's close. (#$%^%$%^%%^&)

I attended some trader education events this week including an IBD ("CAN SLIM" method) preview on Wednesday evening, and an all-day E*Trade trader education day on Thursday in downtown Boston. I got some confirmation that I have learned a lot in the last few years, but I need more trading capital, and I still have to manage risk/position sizing issues. It was a great couple of days that gave me some hope to maybe trading full-time (something I bet everyone says...). I know realistically that I'd have to be in a better all-around situation financially (more savings, 3-6 months living expenses, etc.), but I feel in some way that I'm moving in small ways in that direction.

(Ugly) Markets are Closed...

2009-02-16T14:38:00.003-05:00

So on my day off, the NYSE/Nasdaq is closed! (Not really fair...but maybe it's a good thing.) So I'm trading a little currency (forex), although pretty low volume as well. Today's trading thesis is that between the yen position and the euro, the dollar still must be the world's reserve currency (yes, as gold rallies). And since the G7 made their protectionist fears known, but left the currency markets alone... I am shorting the EURO. (scalps only... not enough trading til Asian opens...) (Made some, gave it back, made some, gave it back, ---I must remember... don't force trades...).

Market stumble

2009-02-11T00:15:00.001-05:00

So the market dropped like a stone today while I was at the jobJob. Thanks Mr. Treasury Secretary for being vague about things that demand clarity. I was able to take some profits on GOOGLE early this morning. (And I did buy some FAS and NXY calls today -- but I could have such better prices, if i had waited.) Also a little forex: shorting EUR/USD.... Who knows what's next.......???????

Obama, Geithner, FAS, DNA, MTL, and DRYS

2009-02-09T22:03:00.004-05:00

So I'm glad I locked in FAS gains on Friday and today (although I'm still holding some in my long-term ROTH ira account. This could be a strange week for the markets-- understatement!! (--->>Obama, stimulus, Geithner, bailout, badbank, TARP2). Still holding swing trades in Dryships (DRYS) on solving their loan issue; Genentech (DNA), on the Roche underbid... and the super-undervalued Mechel Steel (MTL). Tomorrow I'll prob trim a little Google... Goodtrading.

Roche-Genentech, Obama, Financials, and Turkcell

2009-01-31T16:29:00.010-05:00

So news flow aside, I was too busy at my jobJob to do more than buying back premium. If you've read earlier posts, I sell covered calls against some of my long positions on rally days to take advantage of high volatility and bigger premiums. Then on down days like Friday (1/30), I buy them back lower (obviously) and pocket the difference. My small gains for Friday were taken in uncovering positions in Genentech (DNA) on the bad news of the Roche hostile-takeover underbid, and the SSO (the Ultra S&P 500 etf) on the down market.

Obama spanked Wall Street this week for its greedy disconnect from reality, but I still added to my new FAS position (the Direxion 3x Financial Bull etf) because I think we have more upside coming in the next couple weeks... If it doesn't work, I'll just sell Feb calls against the whole position for some income/downside protection... my average cost is 9.89... (the FEB-09 options are shown here as of Friday... $165 per contract at-the-money.... not bad-- go look up March - even crazier!)

The FAS intraday 5-minute chart from Friday ends well so I'm hopeful.... I'm also in a swing trade of Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (ADR) (NYSE: TKC), the largest wireless provider in Turkey (cash, dividend, growth!)... (see Jason Moran on Blue Note for a great transcription of a Turkish phone conversation turned into a crazy piece for jazz trio...)

Lastly my goals... after giving some back, and then taking some of the giveback BACK, I can say I made my monthly goal for January--- better way to start the year than in the past.... I must TRY not to give any back. I will proceed cautiously in February because there is still a lot of bad news out there. Onward and upward...

LOCK in the Gains Day....

2009-01-28T16:23:00.008-05:00

WHEW! The BIGBADBANKOFAMERICA! Dow ends the day up 2.46% to 8375 and S&P up 3.36% to 874: Took some gains on FAS (triple financial bull) so that I lock in some crazy-day gains... when an ETF is up so much in one day I have to take the gain.... (I BOT at 9.88 avg., and sold at 12.36 - so that's a 25.1% (!) move before commissions.) I sold the long calls too. DON'T BE GREEDY... It's January and it's still bad out there, so it makes sense to take some off the table and keep my eye on my daily, weekly, monthly goals. Nice gains for only trading market open and last 15minutes (with regular Jobjob in-between)-- makes me think of all those COMPLETE days staring at the screen to make this $$ (even though these are essentially 6-day SWING trades and not DAYTRADES...). I also sold my TAN (the solar ETF) calls for a small gain... Giddy UP.

FAS and the wonderful BadBank of AMERICA....

2009-01-27T22:07:00.007-05:00

So I'm back at my jobJob, so trading is 'catch as catch can' for now.... Decent day in the market, but the only thing I did was lock in some gains uncovering my FAS position (FAS is the Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares EXCHANGE TRADED FUND). (I sold FEB-09 $12.50's @1.15 the other day and bought them back this morning for .85 - a quick .30 on those contracts...) So I'm long the ETF, and I also have long calls for FAS, the APR-09 $10's which already are in the green, but pretty low volume for now... (I almost took the gains today, and wrote more covered calls against FAS, but I decided to wait...)

Good thing I waited ... After-hours CNBC breaking news.... So our new Treasury Secretary and his staff are hinting at that well-circulated BADBANK idea that could take away all the troubled assets from the financials and free them up to recover... All the financials AND my FAS jumped after hours.... so tomorrow I might sell the long calls immediately, and (RE)write FEB-09 calls against my stock position-- while everyone is so GIDDY! A long slow recovery could still await us- even with this plan... Plus I'd like to lock in some additional gains before January ends... (My AAPL and GOOG positions are working too...)

Google reports (and improvisation...)

2009-01-22T23:10:00.004-05:00

I guess GOOG did it again. Not sure how I feel about their options swap... Can't the googlers just wait for the stock price to go back up like the rest of us. I understand retention of great talent, but will their employees really leave in this marketplace??

I put on a couple trades today, but mostly quiet... I got long the FAS ( financial bull 3x)... (Bought it too early- but it's so cheap now...). I got common stock and APR-09 $10 calls... Once we get some financial rescue-speak from the new D.C. crew, maybe a couple of the financials will go higher. If not the premium is so FAT that I might just write FEB covered calls against my position...

So improvisation- as my dayjobJOB sneaks up monday... full props to Herbie Hancock... Pre-inauguration, Lincoln Memorial, film crews from HBO, and a huuuuuuge crowd, classic reggae tune with Will.i.am and Cheryl Crow-- and Herbie on electric piano plays..... WHATEVER HE WANTS... kinda out shit -- funky- avant garde-- he loves pop/rock, but he's a jazz legend, played with Miles - his ears are Huge!!! He played in that moment - not the rehearsal, not like the &@)^%# record, but the vibe of what he HEARD at that moment. Go Herbie...

Trade and Learn

2009-01-21T20:33:00.005-05:00

So here's the understatement of 2009: The balance between fear/greed is such an exhilarating and strange part of trading- regularly thrashes my logical side.... Yesterday's inauguration was amazing and inspiring- but the market seemed to ignore it...and focus on bank nationalization around the world.

I made small gains last week and this week with selling/buying back premium, and swing trades... But I gave back some '09 gains on a stupid GOOG options day trades (one went against me hard last wednesday...) But I've missed some obvious trades lately--(Stocktwits is really great, but on my IDIOTA days, it's annoying to see those punks raking in $$$$ (just kidding).

Rebound today-- and then AAPL cranking after hours (long AAPL). Let's see what the street thinks of the guidance... And the new smart guy in the oval office!! I'm optimistic...

Trading Strategy and Discipline...

2009-01-13T07:50:00.003-05:00

So a couple more weeks until the JOB job... so I'm trying to trade the days wisely. But with my new '09 goals and some lucky trades, I've already made my month and I'm trying to NOT GIVE IT BACK. Yesterday was quiet for me: uncovering SSO and GILD for small gains, and then trimming back (to control RISK) on Gilead (GILD) for a small loss. Glad I dumped my FSLR on Friday...

Yesterday I bought AAPL puts for protection this week (I'm still long AAPL and I think they will surprise the street when they report), but mostly watching my Genentech (DNA) for an exit on the Roche buyout plans. So much for GOOG monday (my last post)... I might take some small premiums on my open positions if it looks like its just a free money week--- (DOUBT IT)-- I think we are oversold and would welcome a rally...

New lesson in my trading plan: DON'T make a "day trade" into a "swing trade" just because it doesn't work intraday. GET GET GET GET GET ---->OUT!!! (I spent some time last night after-hours making a new trading tracking spreadsheet in NUMBERS (AAPL's pretty amazing alternative to EXCEL)... to track daily/monthly/annual goals and averages. (It's set up to ignore weekends/holidays, but will adjust my trading AVG based on available trading days (as long as I enter "$0"...) Now I just have to have great numbers to plug in! Go get 'em...

Google Monday?

2009-01-10T15:28:00.002-05:00

So notice the Google (GOOG) action on this chart... I like the volume on the close...

"Meanwhile, on Friday Reuters reported that China Mobile plans to launch a TD-SCDMA-based 3G handset based on Google's Android platform in the current quarter."

How that will monetize, I'm not sure, and it's not really NEW news, but we'll see. (Also let's see what happens with Genentech (DNA) with that Roche bid that may or may not be TOO LOW!!!)

Busy week trading...

2009-01-10T14:50:00.004-05:00

So I decided to trade out of my FSLR on Friday (1/9) and take the NICE swing trade gains to go with my daytrading gains. The scalps around my core position worked as well, but I was busy trading other stocks so I left a lot on the table. The only real mistake was covering the stock (JAN-09 $160 call) and then uncovering at a loss... Overall the trade was a gain. Here's a three-day chart (even though the first scalp trade is from a day earlier) that shows the unrealized loss in the stock at the end of the first day. Better to be lucky than SMART!

First Solar

2009-01-07T21:04:00.002-05:00

I'm consciously trying to have a stable of stocks that I know pretty well and can regularly trade for intraday gains or swing trades. First Solar (FSLR) is interesting because it was apparently a hedge-fund regular that's been rebounding for a while but is still down 37% in the last year. Will it get an Obama run (to go with its Obama bump...)?? Its a Nasdaq-100 member, about ~1500 employees, formed in 1999/2002, thin-film, growth industry, green... you get the idea... We'll see. Investment, trade, and stock to watch...

Two VERY Different Days...

2009-01-07T20:38:00.004-05:00

TUES: So yesterday was the long awaited MacWorld event without Steve Jobs (which still helped me unload my AAPL options). I had a good day trading AAPL, BZH, DXO, and MT... most didn't do what I wanted but I made my whole day trading Apple JAN-09 $90 and $95 calls. And I found that I made nearly the same as Monday, but WITHOUT the same quantity of trades. SAY NO TO OVERTRADING!

WED: Today was a down day-- still harder for me to daytrade with my bullish bias.. (I'm still not great at shorting effectively...) Today I bought GILD and FSLR for swing trades that I may write January-09 covered calls against (10 days!) OR trade out of them tomorrow or Friday. With the market down today, I made my gains trading SRS, EEM/CSCO (at-the-money call options), lost a little failing to short AAPL well (??), and bought some more at-the-money AAPL call options... (tried to day trade out but got stuck with them at 4pm- crunch)... My day numbers boost was a quick scalp of the Dutch company Crucell N.V. (CRXL) running to day highs because of biotech merger news with Wyeth....

I just have to remember now to not overtrade and to watch position sizing based on what the market shows for intra-day direction.

Overtrading !

2009-01-05T21:56:00.004-05:00

So I made $$ today in a crazy down market by essentially overtrading (not GOOD!!!!)... The short list is AAPL (stock and options): [on the welcome news of the Steve Jobs letter]; QLD, LVS, RIG, JASO, YHOO, GOOG, TROW, BUCY, FSLR, DRYS, AMX, ERX, GS, FAZ, and DUG. Crazy overtrading... I think if I had stopped at 2pm I would have been better off... less trades and no give-back because the worst part of my 'nice up-day' is that it was nicer and then the market turned and I was FORCING some trades... I still have some AAPL stock and front-month call options... and a few other things like GW--> almost PDS; and MTL... but I'm trying to go mostly to cash overnight and reassess the market each trading day... Swing trading some options I guess... but intraday feels smarter right now so that I don't wake up to crazy news.... Even if no one reads this (or learns from it) I will learn by keeping this trading journal/blog as I can... WOOF!

Monday Watch List: Under the Microscope...

2009-01-04T12:17:00.006-05:00

Here's my Monday Watch List: EBS, TWGP, AVAV, ACM, CPLA, ATHN, EMS, DRYS, JASO, RIG, DXO, MICC, USB, AKS, MT, MTL. PBR, SLX, RIO, and AAPL.

Apple volume....

2009-01-04T09:56:00.005-05:00

So a quick note and a screen shot.... here's AAPL (Apple, Inc.) level two trades on New Year's Eve (12/31/08)... somebody dumped some serious Apple shares before the year ended. I actually felt bad for this fella when AAPL moved 6% on the first day of the New Year... (Here's hoping that Steve Jobs still makes a CAMEO at this week's MacWorld!!!!!)

Apple Rebound, and oversold Oil?

2008-12-30T09:17:00.006-05:00

So maybe it's end-of-year "window dressing" for all of our HUGE institutional buddies, but I think AAPL should rally today, and with some geo-political news (the craziness in Israel-Gaza) I think many traders are pushing up oversold OIL... So I'm trading front month options in both AAPL and RIG. My hedge in AAPL is the strategy that has been working recently-- in addition to holding AAPL call options, I hold AAPL common stock and sell calls against it-- as AAPL has been pulling back, I've been able to buy back my covered calls for a gain. (This has worked with quite a few stocksand ETF's lately, including BUCY, SSO, UYG, and others).

I'm also long FXI options, because I do believe that growth will return to China in a serious way. We'll see... All those people expecting the calendar flip to be instant recovery will probably be disappointed... but trading seems to be the only way.... (Plus long-term investing in other accounts, which I encourage...)

Weak!!!

2008-12-22T22:20:00.004-05:00

weak!!! so today was #%€£]* special... Made a little today, but took some big UNREALIZED HITS on some holdings... Trading GW, MT, AAPL, UYG, FAZ, and long calls on RIG and AAPL. GreyWolf was a gain just before the stock halted - I should have quickly sold during the activity before the halt... Looking for an exit tomorrow or i'll take the conversion to PDS , collect the dividend in january and split. Maybe the shareholders will kai-bosch the deal and the stock will bounce... Yuck. Oil seems oversold , hence the RIG options - but they are kicking my ass today... And AAPL ....even more insane...

HEDGE intraday update....

2008-12-19T11:46:00.002-05:00

these long/short ETF's make it so easy for individuals to do what pro's have done for years...

market HEDGE

2008-12-19T10:43:00.004-05:00

long UYG - Proshares Ultra Financial and long FAZ- Direxion Financial Bear 3X ETF.... volatile but hedged....

Thursday after-action and Apple

2008-12-18T23:38:00.004-05:00

Tough market today (and yesterday), giveback days for gains from the beginning of the week. Just when long seemed right- short was the play and vice-versa. AAPL was getting sucker punched again for the Macworld newsflow and other downgrade nonsense. I am long AAPL (stock and options)-- one of the few I want to hold.

Streaming stock ideas on stocktwit.com is cool and a bit crazy... I have to figure out who is more right and tune out the others!!

Options expiration should be nuts tomorrow... I think we get a tech rally on the RIMM news, and a market rally on a White House auto bailout.

Put me in coach--- I want another chance to hit the #&$@$&@ ball!!!!!

NEW TRADING RULES:

2008-12-18T18:10:00.004-05:00

Here's an attempt to (for myself) crystallize my trading rules:
1. Stick to my plan
2. Watch trading size - smaller regular wins for now
3. cut losers -FASTER!
4. stay calm - pace yourself
5. no frenzy trading - don't chase every opportunity
6. wait for pullbacks (even modest intraday ones..)
7. careful not to make careless mistakes--- i.e., wrong options symbols, etc.
8. go for the daily goal, and the go to cash at night (as much as possible)
9. pull the trigger when necessary (no prob) and don't always pull the trigger
10. watching the market is learning something/seeing things - don't always trade!

that's it for now.....

woof...

Intraday...

2008-12-18T11:37:00.002-05:00

Trading AAPL calls, EBS, and MTL intraday... follow on stocktwits.com as oddthink...

Fed helps out!!!

2008-12-16T22:32:00.004-05:00

So the Fed goosed the market today-- making a daytrader's paradise... Crazy price action.... Made gains today in FAS, GOOG, RIMM, INTC, and UYG. Commodities might work going forward-- i'll check out some steel stocks tommorow: MTL AKS MT NUE STLD X. Go get 'em!

BACK at the Day Trading.....

2008-12-15T22:04:00.003-05:00

12/15/08: Today I traded some UYG, AUY, FAZ (triple financial bear) and AAPL DEC-08 $95 calls that expire Friday.... Crazy market-- been taking some time to reassess trading strategy, (WORK=save), and watching all kinds of live day trading on youtube, and listening to traderinterviews.com has been pretty amazing too...

T. Rowe Price BLUE CHIP GROWTH

2008-03-28T18:35:00.000-04:00

http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&q=MUTF:TRBCX&

Bear Market?

2008-01-22T15:52:00.000-05:00

So we got our 75 basis point intra-meeting fed cut, we got a volatility spike and we get AAPL (Apple, Inc) earnings within a half hour. Global sell-off over the weekend is not the real key here. Seems like "Uncoupling" is the new dirty word on Wall Street. Our markets DO affect the whole world, there is no safe hideout in emerging markets with this much fear and downward pressure in the U.S. markets. I'm not entirely pessimistic... many things look really cheap here. You'll see some new picks here going forward. We'll see.. Still LONG and positive of NYX, VIP and others...

Monday Bounce-back.

2008-01-14T22:59:00.000-05:00

I was relieved to see an up-day on the major averages, even though we didn't get any FED guidance today (we've perhaps let go of the hope for a mid-meeting rate cut). Friday's sell-off was counteracted by these new IBM earnings (and more) that proved that there is GROWTH around the globe. I'm updating the IDEA STOCKS (here), but may soon drop a couple tickers that may be wrong in this market. For example: PZE (the other Petrobras) may have been caught up in mistaken Ken Heebner (CNBC interview), and Jim Cramer recommendations. (DON'T ASK.) My QQQQ and AAPL options are active on todays technology sector action.
MacWorld's Steve Jobs keynote address is tomorrow. Let's see if the bloggers (and spies) are right around the web with this "MacBook AIR" laptop, which does make sense with the "There's something in the air" Apple web teaser. Apple is a great company beaten down 25 points in the last 2 weeks. DISCLOSURE: Long of APPL (options) and long of QQQQ (options) and T Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX) mutual fund which both have Apple as top holdings.

Here are the Numbers!

2008-01-11T01:25:00.001-05:00

I'm reserving judgement on today's FED-speak. I'm definitely cautiously optimistic.

NYSE Euronext

2008-01-10T10:11:00.001-05:00

The most interesting news after-market yesterday, and overnight, is this report that the New York Stock Exchange/Euronext is in discussions to buy the smaller American Stock Exchange. I've been in this for a solid year, and I do think that they are undervalued AND long-term, name-brand player who will continue to push for world-wide exchange consolidation (India, Brazil, office in China, technical assistance to Tokyo Exchange [which strikes me as a preamble to a worldwide hook-up!). I've been awaiting a U.S. derivatives play as well (NMX) or (ICE), but it hasn't happened yet. (I traded Nymex stock and options all last summer and fall.)

[NYX is 79.88 (+.08, +0.10%) in mid-morning trading]

THE OTHER SIDE: My worst trade in 2007 (and most painful!) was NYX call options (bullish) bought in January and expiring in June 07. At this point I still believe that I was MORE early than WRONG. (Although the market made sure that I realized that I was truly WRONG! - I actually felt bad for Jim Cramer and all the crap he got over this stock. Do your own research before you buy anything! So many CNBC junkies bought NYX at the TOP!

Plus they have a small dividend to encourage you to wait--I'm pretty bullish. But I think even with a slowdown in the U.S., the European trades and the sheer volatility in all markets in 2008 will still benefit this and other exchange stocks.

DISCLOSURE: Long of NYX and NYX (options)

Wednesday: Finally got a NASDAQ up-day in 2008.

2008-01-09T18:04:00.000-05:00

Finally got a NASDAQ up-day in 2008. Enough said. (Let's see what guidance we get from the Fed tomorrow...)

CFC, BSC, and T: Rollover Day

2008-01-09T00:24:00.000-05:00

So I felt like we were getting a bit of traction and that the NASDAQ (and my QQQQ and AAPL options) would finally have an up day. Even AAPL looked like it might be OK (top holding in the qqqq's etf, if you're not aware.) Like many others, I would have loved for the market to close today at 2:35pm (!!!), before the AT&T tanking. It really just felt like widespread panic-selling. It is INTERESTING that emerging market stocks are working (look at the IDEA stocks--- notice Intl Telecom and the Brazilian energy...). I hold some mutual funds outside of my trading account (in hopes of balancing my trading!!) and the only one up today of mine was TREMX (T.Rowe Price Emerging Europe and Mediterranean). Hmmmmm. I'll be sure to watch the RSX (Russia) and GAF (Africa/Middle East) ETF's going forward... maybe some real '08 growth. (We need some glimmer of hope, however fleeting...)

Let me take this down day as an opportunity to also mention PROSPER.com. Since the start of last year, I have been a "lender" on their website, after reading a MONEY MAGAZINE article on peer-to-peer loan auctions. It's an interesting idea of bidding on individuals' proposals to borrow money. It seems well researched, and although there is still the possibility of defaults, the loans I am part of (only about 6) have only had one LATE PAYMENT, and no defaults. The yields are worth exploring, but as with any investment-- you have to diversify the risk. (Disclosure: This is not a paid endorsement, I am just a satisfied participant in their financial experiment..) Expecting a 2007 interest 1099 soon from them-- to see full circle... Maybe I'll up my stake for '08 for some of my target return. That's it for now.

TOUGH MARKET

2008-01-07T22:42:00.000-05:00

Here are the IDEA updates ---> So my AAPL options and QQQQ options aren't working (yet). We still need some market direction....I think the JP Morgan Health Care Conference, and the beginning of the Consumer Electronics Show (and Microsoft's PR machine) helped the Nasdaq a bit during the day, but not the close. The GLOBAL Telecom ideas worked over the weekend --- these are short-term results (obviously!), but I think they have some really potential in '08.

Improvised Investing 01062008a

2008-01-06T16:21:00.000-05:00

So I'm thinking that there needs to be a pool of idea stocks (and options plays) for 2008. I think even if we have a very volatile market, it may be possible to make some clear gains here. Here's what I'm thinking--

GLOBAL Infrastructure and Commodities (Mittal Steel (MT), Caterpillar (CAT), Manitowoc (MTW), Cemex (CX); Transocean (RIG); Aluminum Corp of China (ACH); Petrobras (PBR) and (PZE);

GLOBAL Telecommunications: China Mobile (CHL); Vodafone (VOD); Millicom (MICC); Turkcell (TKC); Cellcom Israel (CEL); (TNE); AT&T (T); Vimpel Communications (VIP), (MBT); Research in Motion (RIMM); Apple (AAPL); etc...

However interesting some of these are-- remember to STAY diversified!!

Improvised Investing 01062008

2008-01-06T15:53:00.001-05:00

OK, so we're off to a rough start in 2008, especially the NASDAQ. I'm positioned to trade the QQQQ's (Nasdaq 100 ETF) options, because I think the tech sell-off was overdone on the INTEL (INTC) downgrade, and the jobs number. I think with CES (electronics show) and the dazzle of MacWorld in a week and a half, will make investors give tech another look. (Fast Money on CNBC said the CES is rarely a market mover but I think it could help the QQQQ's, not to mention the bio-tech conference on the horizon.) [ QQQQ closed at $48.40, down -$2.22 (-4.39%) on Jan 4, 2008 ]

But let's assume the first week is still "amateur hour", retail investors mostly, as I've heard it described. Next week the institutional investors can help give us some direction. Maybe tech consolidates a little right here, but the jobs number should ensure some more fed assistance.

Tech going forward: Personally, I think AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, and NVDA look interesting here. AAPL has too many ideas up their sleeve; GOOG in wireless means big changes ahead; RIMM - blackberry in China, enough said; and NVDA (reference Forbes magazine article) has many intriguing new uses for its graphics chips...

GOOD TRADING. Keep a couple $$$ on the side for some opportunity trades.